PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X to sell 6-8 million in 2020, analyst says

Next-gen consoles could move big volume in 2020, but it all depends on price.

@DeekeTweak

Published Jan 21, 2020 10:35 AM CST
Updated Nov 3, 2020 11:45 AM CST

20 minutes & 57 seconds read time

The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X could sell up to a combined 8 million units in 2020, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter predicts.

PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X to sell 6-8 million in 2020, analyst says 3

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Next-gen consoles might not sell as well as their forebears. The systems will feature enthusiast-grade hardware to belt out 4K 60FPS gaming (as well as 8K gaming support) thanks to a beefy new Zen 2 CPU and Navi GPU SoC from AMD, as well as a new kind of custom SSD storage tech. These kinds of specs should bring a hefty price point of up to $500, but there's also reports the PS5 could be lower-specced to hit the magical $399 launch price to conquer next-gen sales.

Based on historical current-gen data we can make some predictions, and that's exactly what analyst Michael Pachter has done. Remember next-gen systems are extensions of PS4 and Xbox One ecosystem that will support accessories and games from the current gen. That could buffer or hinder sales figures depending on the price and extent of inter-generation support (people may be less likely to adopt an Xbox Series X if it costs too much and doesn't have a lot of new games, for example).

When it comes to launch sales, though, price is the most important determining factor.

"Consoles typically sell in the 2 million range in the U.S., and they typically sell about the same globally, so between 3-4 million each depending on price," Pachter said in a the most recent episode of Pachter Factor.

"If the price point is $400, I'd say 4 million each. If it's higher than $400 then that number drops. My guess is one will be at $500 and one will be at $400, and the former will be 3 million units and the latter will be 4 million units."

Here's a quick comparison of how current-gen consoles sold at launch:

PlayStation 4 - 4.2 million (7.5 million units FY'13 total)
Xbox One - 3 million+ units

Neither Sony nor Microsoft have revealed the exact MSRP of their respective systems, but I suspect Sony could take a bigger hit because it depends more on volume sales whereas Microsoft pushes services over hardware purchases.

Sony is expected to reveal the PS5 in a special event in February 2020. The console will release in Holiday 2020, and it may cost $499.

Check below for more info:

PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X to sell 6-8 million in 2020, analyst says 5

PlayStation 5 specs and details:

Custom SoC with second-gen Navi GPU, Zen 2 CPU
8-Core, 16-thread Zen 2 CPU at 3.2GHz
Navi GPU at 2.0GHz with 36 Compute Units
Navi, Zen SoC uses new AMD RDNA 2.0 architecture
Ultra-fast SSD
Support for 4K 120 Hz TVs
Ray-tracing enabled
8K output support (for gaming)
Plays all PS4 games
Separate games that ship on BD-XL Blu-ray discs
New controller with extensive haptic and tactile feedback

PlayStation 5 Coverage:

Xbox Series X is due out by Holiday 2020. No pricing has been announced.

Check below for confirmed specs and details, and a huge content listing of everything we've heard about Xbox Series X so far:

Xbox Series X confirmed details (Formerly Project Scarlett):

8-core, 16-thread Zen 2 CPU
Navi GPU on RDNA architecture
Highly customized 7nm SoC from AMD
GDDR6 memory
2x Xbox One X's 6TFLOPs of GPU perf
4x CPU power of Xbox One generation
Can deliver up to 40x more performance than Xbox One in specific use cases
Adaptive sync supported
Super-fast SSD that can be used as VRAM
Supports 8K resolution (likely media playback)
120FPS gaming
Variable refresh rate (adaptive sync/FreeSync)
Variable Rate Shading
Raytracing confirmed with dedicated raytracing cores
Backward compatible with thousands of Xbox, Xbox 360, and Xbox One games
New controller with a dedicated share button
Compatible with Xbox One accessories

Lockhart (Unconfirmed lower-end Xbox Series hardware)

1440p 60FPS
No disc drive
Super-fast SSD that can be used as VRAM
7nm AMD SoC w/ scaled-down 8-core, 16 thread Zen 2 CPU at 3.5GHZ and Navi GPU
Lower GDDR6 memory pool (Possibly 12GB)
~6-8 TFLOPs of power?
Aims to rival PS4 Pro/Replace Xbox One S
Full backward compatibility with all Xbox One games
Cheaper MSRP

Anaconda/Xbox Series X/Project Scarlett

4K 60FPS
Disc drive with 4K UHD playback
Super-fast SSD that can be used as VRAM
7nm AMD SoC with 8-core, 16 thread Zen 2 CPU at 3.5GHz and Navi GPU
16GB GDDR6 RAM
12 TFLOPs of power
2x GPU power as Xbox One X/aims to replace Xbox One X
Full backward compatibility with all Xbox One games
More expensive MSRP

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