Analyst: $500 Xbox Series X will take wind out of Microsoft's sails

Next-gen dominance will come down to the age-old equalizer: The retail price tag.

Reports indicate the PlayStation 5 could be weaker than the Xbox Series X's 12TFLOP GPU, with a possible shrunken MSRP to match. By all accounts the Xbox SX is a beast that "eats monsters for breakfast" that could carry a monstrous price tag to match. Analysts are starting to weigh in on sales predictions, with most agreeing on a $400+ price point for both, but what happens if there's a price difference? If the Xbox SX is more expensive, the PS5 could win.

"You know what's going to take the wind out of Microsoft's sales? Charging more than $400. That's a problem. I think far more relevant to the success of both boxes is if there's a price differential. If they're priced the same I think they have an equal chance of thriving. If they're priced vastly different, the cheaper one's going to win," Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said in a recent episode of The Pachter Factor.

Analysts like IHS Markit's Piers Harding-Rolls thinks the PS5 and Xbox SX will be priced similarly, which could hint at a $499 standard MSRP for both.

"I also expect pricing of both PS5 and Xbox Series X to be similar, and I think it's more likely than not they will be higher than the PS4 launch price point of $399," Harding-Rolls said in a recent interview with GamesIndustry.biz.

Reports also say Microsoft will release two next-gen Xbox consoles in 2020: The enthusiast-grade Xbox Series X that targets 4K 60FPS, and a cheaper digital-only system with pared down specs called Lockhart that targets 1440p 60FPS.

Pachter weighs in on this multi-SKU price range too:

"I think $500 for the top box is the maximum they can charge. Knowing Microsoft, I'd say a $100 difference between the more powerful and less powerful, but the problem's the specs on Lockhart. Lockhart better be more powerful than an Xbox One X, and I don't know if they can differentiate those two. So I'd say $500 and $400."

This pretty much aligns with our predictions that a $399 PlayStation 5 will absolutely dominate next-gen. There's just one problem: We don't know if the leaked Oberon specs represent final performance or not. They likely don't, and it's possible the PS5 will shoot past the leaked 9.2TFLOPs of GPU perf to match the Xbox SX.

Even still it's likely the PlayStation 5 will still win when it comes to sales simply because it supports PlayStation 4 backward compatibility. We'll see hundreds of millions of games carry forward to the next-generation as millions of current PS4 owners buy into the new ecosystem.

Luckily Microsoft is prepared for such an event and doesn't necessarily care about console sales. For Microsoft, the real money is in services, subscriptions, and games. Console sales aren't everything and Microsoft has made a killer business on its massively lucrative and engaging webwork of services--something that Sony hasn't refined nearly as much.

Xbox Series X is due out by Holiday 2020. No pricing has been announced.

Check below for confirmed specs and details, and a huge content listing of everything we've heard about Xbox Series X so far:

Xbox Series X confirmed details (Formerly Project Scarlett):

• 8-core, 16-thread Zen 2 CPU
• Navi GPU on RDNA architecture
• Highly customized 7nm SoC from AMD
• GDDR6 memory
• 2x Xbox One X's 6TFLOPs of GPU perf
• 4x CPU power of Xbox One generation
• Can deliver up to 40x more performance than Xbox One in specific use cases
• Adaptive sync supported
• Super-fast SSD that can be used as VRAM
• Supports 8K resolution (likely media playback)
• 120FPS gaming
• Variable refresh rate (adaptive sync/FreeSync)
• Variable Rate Shading
• Raytracing confirmed with dedicated raytracing cores
• Backward compatible with thousands of Xbox, Xbox 360, and Xbox One games
• New controller with a dedicated share button
• Compatible with Xbox One accessories

Lockhart (Unconfirmed lower-end Xbox Series hardware)

• 1440p 60FPS
• No disc drive
• Super-fast SSD that can be used as VRAM
• 7nm AMD SoC w/ scaled-down 8-core, 16 thread Zen 2 CPU at 3.5GHZ and Navi GPU
• Lower GDDR6 memory pool (Possibly 12GB)
• ~6-8 TFLOPs of power?
• Aims to rival PS4 Pro/Replace Xbox One S
• Full backward compatibility with all Xbox One games
• Cheaper MSRP

Anaconda/Xbox Series X/Project Scarlett

• 4K 60FPS
• Disc drive with 4K UHD playback
• Super-fast SSD that can be used as VRAM
• 7nm AMD SoC with 8-core, 16 thread Zen 2 CPU at 3.5GHz and Navi GPU
• 16GB GDDR6 RAM
• 12 TFLOPs of power
• 2x GPU power as Xbox One X/aims to replace Xbox One X
• Full backward compatibility with all Xbox One games
• More expensive MSRP

Xbox Series X coverage:

• Xbox Series X will destroy PlayStation 5 with its MUCH faster GPU
• Xbox Series X rumor: launching November 22 for $499
• Xbox Series X GPU is better than any Navi GPU released so far
• Xbox Series X may be more powerful, but will third-party devs use it?
• Xbox Series X will boost performance of previous gen Xbox games
• PS5, Xbox Series X SSD may use software-defined flash to boost speeds
• Microsoft to 'virtually eliminate' loading times on Xbox Series X
• How the Xbox Series X will look in your living room
• Clarifying the Xbox Series X name
• Xbox Series X's custom SoC built with backward compatibility in mind
• Next-gen Forza is playable on Xbox Series X, is 'vastly different'
• Xbox Series X size comparison vs Xbox One, PS4 Pro, Switch
• Next-gen Xbox controller has a share button
• Xbox Series X naming scheme leaves door open for Lockhart
• Xbox Series X may allow suspend and resume for multiple games at once
• Microsoft reveals next-gen Xbox console, the Xbox Series X
• Xbox Series X may allow suspend and resume for multiple games at once
• Next-gen Xbox Lockhart has 'significantly less RAM' for 1440p gaming
• Next-gen Xbox Scarlett specs: 12TFLOPs, 16GB RAM, 3.5GHz Zen 2 CPU
• Cheaper next-gen Xbox Lockhart targets 1440p 60FPS
• Cheaper next-gen Xbox Lockhart targets 1440p 60FPS
• Project Scarlett devkits aren't widely available yet
• PS5, Xbox Scarlett SSD may use Optane-like ReRAM to supercharge speeds
• NVIDIA G-Sync monitors to improve PlayStation 5 and Xbox Scarlett
• Project Scarlett won't get VR gaming, Microsoft doesn't care about VR
• Next-gen Xbox Scarlett plays four generations of Xbox games
• Microsoft teases next-gen Xbox: 8K, 120FPS, super-fast SSD
• Xbox Scarlett CPU: 'no compromises', allows for 4K 120FPS gaming
• Microsoft: Xbox Scarlett will kick PlayStation 5's ass in perf/price
• Next-gen Xbox may hit 4K 60FPS in every game
• Project Scarlett to hit 1080p 120FPS gaming
• Project Scarlett trade-in program announced, but there's a big catch
• New Viking Assassin's Creed may be next-gen console launch game
• Next-gen Xbox may get room-scale VR gaming
• PS5 and Xbox Scarlett will both handle ray tracing differently
• Gears 5 developer says Xbox Scarlett has dedicated ray tracing cores
• GTA 6 on PS5, Project Scarlett to have insane hyper-realistic visuals
• AMD 'Flute': Xbox Scarlett SoC: Zen 2 8C/16T @ 3.2GHz on 7nm
• Project Scarlett's price isn't locked in yet
• Project Scarlett isn't the last Xbox console