Analyst cuts Switch 2 sales forecast by millions over tariff worries

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The global economic uncertainty from ongoing trade tariffs have clouded sales forecasts for the Nintendo Switch 2, and some analyst firms are lowering their year-one expectations for the new console.

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Analyst firm DFC Intelligence has downwardly revised its sales forecast for Nintendo's upcoming Switch 2 system. The stat-tracker dropped its target by 2 million units as it weighs the implications of the current worldwide trade market.

DFC Intelligence originally had a top-line estimate of 17 million units for the Switch 2, but the firm now expects Nintendo to ship 15 million successor consoles in the first year.

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The group explains their rationale in an entry to clients:

Due to pricing concerns, DFC Intelligence is lowering its 2025 worldwide forecast for the Switch 2 from 17 million to 15 million units. This will still make the Switch 2 the fastest selling console system ever.

Previous best-sellers including the original Switch, the PlayStation 4 and the Wii took at least a year to reach the 15 million unit level.

• The lower forecast are directly related to supply and pricing. With tariffs and uncertain pricing Nintendo may choose to scale back its manufacturing.
• If prices increase substantially due to tariffs, a significant portion of prospective buyers are likely to hold back on a purchase until prices come down.

This situation is changing and will be closely monitored as DFC regularly updates its forecast throughout the year.

Long term, the upper limit for hardware sales for the Switch 2 is enormous. The Switch 2 continues an established system and the ability to act as a portable device taps into Nintendo's rich history of offering portable/console experiences.