Goodbye artificial scarcity: Nintendo can produce 20 million Switch 2 consoles in first year

Nintendo has reportedly set up a production supply and shipment network that will allow it to sell more than 20 million Switch 2 consoles in one year.

Goodbye artificial scarcity: Nintendo can produce 20 million Switch 2 consoles in first year
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Senior Gaming Editor
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TL;DR: Nintendo plans to maximize Switch 2 sales, potentially reaching 20 million units in the first year, according to analyst Robin Zhu. Despite robust production, analysts predict supply constraints due to high demand. The Switch 2 could sell 4.3 million units in the U.S. in 2025, with total sales possibly reaching 80 million by 2028.

Gone are the days of artificial scarcity: Nintendo intends to sell as many Switch 2 consoles as possible, and one analyst believes the Japanese toy-maker could sell 20 million systems in the debut year.

Goodbye artificial scarcity: Nintendo can produce 20 million Switch 2 consoles in first year 10

Nintendo could ship up to 20 million Switch 2 consoles in the system's first year of availability. The estimate was provided by AB Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu, who tells Bloomberg that Nintendo has created a substantially robust production/manufacturing and shipment infrastructure specifically for the Switch 2. While not mentioned in the coverage, Nintendo's supply line network could further point towards the Switch 2 using an 8nm Orin Tegra SoC produced at Samsung Foundry.

If accurate, Nintendo could ship up to 7.87 million more Switch 2 consoles than its predecessor in the same time period. This big cache of hardware is good news for consumers, especially if other analysts are correct in their Switch 2 predictions.

Goodbye artificial scarcity: Nintendo can produce 20 million Switch 2 consoles in first year 21

Japan-based analyst Dr. Serkan Toto warns that the Switch 2 will "sell out very quickly and not be available for months."

Mat Piscatella, managing director at Circana's video games segment, likewise says that Switch 2 supply will be tight throughout 2025.

"I'm expecting to see hardware constraints for several months after a significant early demand surge. And units sold will, of course, be dependent upon manufacturing capabilities and will," Piscatella said on Bluesky.

Piscatella believes that the Switch 2 could sell 4.3 million consoles in the United States throughout 2025 and account for roughly 1/3rd of hardware sales in the year for the region.

Other firms like DFC Intelligence believe the Switch 2 will sell more or less in line with the current Switch system. DFC predicts that the Switch 2 could hit 80 million sales by 2028.

In its first year, DFC predicts the Switch 2 will sell around 15-17 million systems. For reference, the base Switch sold 14.87 million units in its first year.

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NEWS SOURCE:bloomberg.com

Senior Gaming Editor

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Derek joined the TweakTown team in 2015 and has since reviewed and played 1000s of hours of new games. Derek is absorbed with the intersection of technology and gaming, and is always looking forward to new advancements. With over six years in games journalism under his belt, Derek aims to further engage the gaming sector while taking a peek under the tech that powers it. He hopes to one day explore the stars in No Man's Sky with the magic of VR.

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