Nintendo's Switch 2 sales forecast is quite conservative, analyst says

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Nintendo's newly published Switch 2 sales forecast is conservative and reserved compared to analyst expectations.

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Nintendo expects the Switch 2 to sell 15 million units in about 10 months, making it the fastest-selling console ever. This milestone is impressive on paper, but comparing the forecast with historical results shows that the Switch 2 would only beat the Switch 1's first-year sales by some 130,000 units (with 2 months to spare).

Analysts like Niko Partners director of research and insights Daniel Ahmad says that this estimate is an example of Nintendo holding back and being reserved, which is typical of the company. Niko Partners had the Switch 2 shipping 14.5 million consoles in just a six-month period (by the end of December 2025). Nintendo's 15 million Switch 2 estimate is sizable 10-month period ranging from June 2025 - March 2025, and in Niko's forecast, the Switch 2 would hit 14.5 million with an entire extra 3-month quarter to spare.

"Conservative forecast from Nintendo here, likely factoring in unpredictability around tariffs, pricing and production despite the positive pre-order momentum," Ahmad said on Twitter.

"For reference, our forecast was 14.5 million units by the end of December 2025, and that was already considered conservative by most of the industry."

Sizing this up against our chart of Switch 2 analyst predictions shows that Nintendo's estimate is in line with the lower to moderate end of forecasted sales. AB Bernstein, for example, projected that Nintendo could have as many as 20 million Switch 2's produced and potentially shipped in the first year. Check below:

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Ahmad goes on to mention how tariffs could affect the Switch 2 forecast:

"For what it's worth, I do think Nintendo will raise its forecast if (big if) the tariff situation is reversed. However, the main issue right now is knock-on effects that are already in motion and creating a difficult environment for a console launch. Not to mention the threat of increased tariffs."

In its Q4'25 report, Nintendo did indeed confirm that the Switch 2 hardware shipment estimate was made with tariffs in mind:

"For the purposes of the financial forecast and hardware and software unit sales forecast for the next fiscal year, US tariff rates effective on April 10, 2025 US Eastern Time, are maintained throughout the fiscal year."

Here's a quick look at historical year-one console sales and how the Switch 2 will fit among past systems:

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