Analyst: Nintendo Switch 2 supply to be constrained in US, to sell 4.3 million in 2025

One analyst believes Nintendo's new Switch successor could be tough to find shortly after launch--this makes it potentially similar to other hardware releases from the Japanese toy-maker.

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Although Nintendo has yet to announce or reveal its new Switch 2 console, analysts are busily pondering their orbs and making sales predictions for the system. Some, like analyst firm DFC Intelligence, believe the Switch 2 will follow sales trends that are pretty much in line with the original Switch's sales trends.

Circana analyst Mat Piscatella, who looks at regional spending and sales data for the United States, believes that the Switch 2 could sell around 4.3 million units throughout the year. This is U.S-based and not global--for comparison's sake, the Switch moved 14.87 million units globally in its first year, and DFC predicts the Switch 2 could sell between 15-17 million units globally in its first year on the market.

Perhaps the bigger part of the story is how supply is expected to be squeezed a bit in the quarterly period after launch. This is typical for Nintendo hardware--ever since Nintendo's infamous usage of purposeful artificial scarcity in the 1980s, the company's products have always been hit with significant demand pressure upon release.

"Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables)," Circana executive director Mat Piscatella said on Bluesky.

"Expecting to see hardware constraints for several months after a significant early demand surge. And units sold will, of course, be dependent upon manufacturing capabilities and will.

"I still expect PlayStation 5 to rank 1st in overall hardware units sold in the US during the year."

Check below for a closer look at how the original Switch console performed sales-wise at launch and at its current high sales peak.

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