Analyst: Switch 2 to follow Switch sales trends, Switch 2 to sell more than 80 million by 2028

Analyst firm DFC Intelligence predicts that Switch 2 sales will be in line with the sales trends from the original Switch handheld-console hybrid.

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Nintendo is poised to reveal its new Switch 2 console sometime soon. Reports say it'll happen in January, and others indicate that the Switch 2 could launch in March 2025 (the original released in March 2017). If the current Switch family is any indicator, the Switch 2 will sell like gangbusters, potentially even following the strong initial sales of its predecessor.

One analyst firm has laid out their expectations for the Nintendo Switch 2. In a new update post, DFC Intelligence expects the Switch 2 to sell anywhere from 15 to 17 million units in its first year of availability. By 2028, the group believes the Switch 2 will command an installed base of some 80 million users.

"Nintendo will be the clear winner in the next generation of new consoles, due largely to a combination of earlier availability and limited competition. DFC projects that Nintendo will sell 15-17 million units of its new console system in 2025, and more than 80 million units by 2028," reads the update.

Interestingly enough, this is in or around the same kinds of sales numbers that the original Switch delivered.

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It took just four years for the original Switch family to surpass 80 million global shipments.

The sales of two models--the OG 2017 Switch and the Switch Lite--totalled up to 84.59 million by Nintendo's FY21 period which ended on March 31, 2021.

The launch numbers are also similar to those of the original Switch system; in its first year from March 2017 - 2018, the Switch sold 17.79 million units globally.

It's interesting to see analysts expect the Switch 2 to deliver similar figures as the Switch despite Nintendo having its second-largest installed base on the current handheld platform. Given the backward compatibility, Switch software should be playable on Switch 2 consoles, allowing gamers to migrate over to the new generation.

How fast this migration process goes remains to be seen, and may depend on a potent array of software to get users to upgrade or buy into the ecosystem.