Tariffs and production lines didn't affect Switch 2 forecast--price did

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Nintendo doesn't expect the Switch 2 to outsell the Switch 1 at launch due to the system's higher price tag.

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Nintendo recently published its Switch 2 sales forecast for the first year, and the official estimate sees Nintendo expecting to ship 15 million systems in year 1. If Nintendo meets this target, the Switch 2 will technically be the fastest-selling video games console in history, beating out all other consoles throughout the decades. But some analysts think this forecast is conservative, and investors recently asked Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa why the number is so low.

In a recent Q&A with investors, the Nintendo president clarified that the ongoing tariffs (which have now been adjusted) didn't influence the 15 million Switch 2 sales target, nor did production lines. The Switch 2's $450 MSRP was the main reason for the lower-than-expected shipment estimate. Instead of far exceeding the Switch 1, Nintendo simply wants the Switch 2's launch to match the pace set by the original console.

"We are forecasting Nintendo Switch 2 hardware sales of 15 million units for this fiscal year. We set this figure with the aim of reaching the same level of sales we achieved with Nintendo Switch in the roughly 10-month period between its launch in March 2017 and December that year.

"Nintendo Switch 2 is priced relatively high compared to Nintendo Switch, so we recognize that there are corresponding challenges to early adoption. That being said, Nintendo Switch 2 can play compatible Nintendo Switch software, so there is continuity between the platforms.

"We are taking steps like bundling software with the hardware to accelerate adoption in the first fiscal year, aiming to get off to the same start we did with Nintendo Switch."

"The limits of our hardware production capacity were not a factor in setting our sales volume forecast. Additionally, the tariff situation in the U.S. or a possibility of a recession did not affect our sales volume forecast either.

"In order to achieve sales of 15 million units, we will need to manufacture the hardware in quantities greater than that. Our first goal is to get off to the same start we did with Nintendo Switch, and we are working to strengthen our production capacity so we can respond flexibly to demand."

Tariffs will, however, affect Nintendo's bottom line: The company expects tariffs to shave off tens of billions of yen in Fiscal Year 2026 profits.