Earthquakes might be to blame for NVIDIA GeForce RTX 50-series shortages

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The release of the RTX 50-series GPUs has been described as a "paper launch," as it's been almost impossible for hungry gamers to get their hands on the new graphics cards. But why are the latest GPUs so elusive?

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It should be noted that we will likely never learn the official reason why the RTX 50-series GPUs (NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5090/5080) have such a low stock. However, there are tidbits of information that paint a reasonably clear picture of the current situation. I believe there are two big factors contributing to the global shortages of these GPUs, and they are earthquakes destroying TSMC wafers, and the Chinese New Year. Here's what I've pieced together.

It was reported at the end of January that Taiwan experienced a 6.4 magnitude earthquake that resulted in TSMC employees having to evacuate and pause operations for a few days. Reports around that time indicated TSMC's Fab 14, an older facility that is less earthquake-prone than the company's newer facilities, was hit pretty hard, with around half of the equipment in the fab being affected and reportedly more than 30,000 wafers from Fab 14A and 14B rendered unusable. Notably, Fab 14 produces 4nm and 5nm chips, and NVIDIA's Blackwell GPUs are 4nm.

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GPU wafer

While this purported destruction of thousands of wafers, which can contain hundreds of GPUs per wafer, only represents a small fraction of the total output of TSMC, DIGITIMES Asia reported that clients without sufficient stock may face supply disruption and potential sales delays. It was only a few days before TSMC announced that its plant operations were back to nominal levels.

Another factor I believe is contributing to the GPU shortages is the Chinese New Year, which runs from Wednesday, January 29, 2025, to Wednesday, February 12, 2025. During this time, Taiwanese locals aren't working, meaning assembly factories are completely shut down for the break.

I believe the shortages of NVIDIA GeForce RTX 50-series GPUs, which were made available on January 30, 2025, may be a result of the destruction of thousands of 4nm wafers at the end of January, which then led straight into the Chinese New Year when no one was working. The destruction of these wafers and the time taken off during the Chinese holiday seemingly set TSMC behind schedule for the launch of the RTX 50-series, and only now is stock appearing to catch up to where it should be, with a recent report from a leaker suggesting that supply for the new GPUs will soon be "stupidly high".

Lastly, this is just some food for thought, as neither NVIDIA nor TSMC has confirmed why there is a lack of RTX 50-series GPUs on the market.