Switch 2's leaked 5 million sales figure may be a forecast, not actual sales

Reports indicate that the Nintendo Switch 2 sold 5 million units in its first quarter, and if true, the milestone further cements the system as the best-selling console of all time. But the source of the data is dubious and could be internal estimates and not actual sales.

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Nintendo has accidentally released Switch 2 sales data prematurely on its website. While the data is no longer available, it was captured by onlookers. We can't independently verify the information contained herein (we didn't see the website), and it's unclear whether or not Nintendo would have this kind of shipment/sales data so early. Another point: Nintendo won't reveal its Q1 sales data for another month--the Q1 report is due out on August 1.

The data needs context. Apparently, the information is actually a week old and was originally spotted on June 24. The data is believed to be some kind of internal estimate at Nintendo and not actual sales data--the reason for this belief, in part, is the inconsistencies that were shown in quarter-over-quarter Switch 1 software sales.

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The information is compelling, though, complete with a raw 5 million sales figure for the Switch 2 as well as geographical breakout data.

It's just unclear what the data actually is; are we seeing what Nintendo hoped to achieve, or what the Switch 2 was actually able to sell?

Nintendo has said publicly that it expects to sell 15 million Switch 2 consoles by the end of the fiscal year--a conservative estimate, if you ask analysts.