Goldman Sachs says Tesla Robotaxi business to begin commercial operations in 2H 2026

Goldman Sachs has just updated its views on Tesla for its 2027 estimates, saying that it assumes Tesla's robotaxi business will "begin commercial operations" in 2H 2026, reaching around $115 million in revenue in 2027.

The analyst firm expects to see Tesla use remote assistance and geofencing to launch its robotaxi service, adding that "directionally similar to the approaches used by robotaxis on the road currently from competitors". Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney says that the company believes the use of remote assistance, and a narrow geographic environment "could help to improve technical performance compared to Tesla's FSD service on consumer vehicles, although limit the rate of scaling for at least the next few years".

Elon Musk recently came out and said that Tesla will be 100x safer than human drivers by 2025, adding that they "just won't crash". Elon also said that Tesla is capable of driving anywhere, "even an alien planet". You can read more about those stories and his comments below:

• Read more: Elon Musk says that Tesla can drive anywhere, 'even an alien planet'
• Read more: Elon Musk: Tesla will be 100x safer than human drivers in 2025: 'just won't crash'
• Read more: Elon: Optimus robots: 'humanoid robots will be the biggest product in history'
• Read more: Tesla is looking for AI Teleoperation workers: remote control robotaxis, humanoid robots

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said: "We update our views on FSD, add 2027 estimates into our model, and break out the robotaxi business in our revenue build. For FSD, we believe that performance has meaningfully improved with V13 based on our own recent demo ride, crowdsourced data, and third-party reviews. This reinforces our view that Tesla is one of the leaders in autonomous technology".

"Importantly, we still believe there is significant progress needed for FSD to become a situationally eyes-off product (e.g., on a highway in good weather, or Level 3 autonomy) or allow for eyes-off driving in a wide domain".

"Secondly, we assume that Tesla's robotaxi business will begin commercial operations in 2H26 and reach ~$115 million of revenue in 2027 (and be relatively neutral to consolidated EPS). We expect Tesla to use remote assistance and geofencing to launch this service, directionally similar to the approaches used by robotaxis on the road currently from competitors".

"We believe that the use of remote assistance and a narrow geographic environment could help to improve technical performance compared to Tesla's FSD software on consumer vehicles, although limit the rate of scaling for at least the next few years".