Warming climate expected to degrade forecasting abilities

Researchers from Stanford University have published a new study in Geophysical Research Letters, showing how forecasts may become unreliable sooner due to increasingly warmer weather.

An increase of only a few degrees Celsius is enough to reduce the reliability of temperature, wind, and rainfall forecasts by a day. Each degree reduces the accuracy of forecasts by several hours, with a day of accuracy being lost for precipitation with every three-degree rise and a day lost for wind and temperature forecasts for a five-degree rise.

"Our results show the state of the climate in general has implications for how many days out you can say something that's accurate about the weather. Cooler climates seem to be inherently more predictable," said Aditi Sheshadri, the study's lead author.

Global average temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 19th century, however, temperature increase varies depending on the area. Some cities in the United States have risen by more than 2 degrees Celsius since 1970.

Climate change leads to increases in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events. As the climate continues to work and forecasts become less reliable, people will be less prepared for and more susceptible to these extreme weather events.

You can read more from the study here.