Apple's iPhone is contributing to historically low birth rates in the United States

The iPhone may have played a major role in the decline of U.S. fertility rates since 2007, according to a new study. A research paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research suggests the device accounted for up to 52% of the drop in births between 2007 and 2011.

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The study used Apple's early exclusivity with telecommunications carrier AT&T to examine iPhone-specific data, and compared birth rates in regions with higher AT&T adoption to those with higher Verizon adoption. The researchers found a strong correlation between rising iPhone ownership and declining birth rates, particularly among teens and young adults. However, the paper also notes that older generations had correlating declining birth rates in line with iPhone adoption within those demographics.

Furthermore, the study noted a shift in social behavior as being one of the causes of declining birth rates, pointing to reduced in-person social time and increased pornography consumption due to smartphone adoption. The researchers acknowledge that the iPhone is not the sole cause of the fertility decline, as there are many factors at play, with a main one being that as individuals begin to earn more or become more educated, they tend to have fewer children.

"The U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007, a sustained decline not readily explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors. We assess the potential role of a different shock: the diffusion of the smartphone. The U.S. rollout of the iPhone, the first modern smartphone, provides a natural experiment: from June 2007 through February 2011, the device was sold only on AT&T, allowing us to identify its effect from variation in AT&T's mobile broadband coverage.

Entropy-balanced Poisson and synthetic difference-in-differences event studies imply that access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5 - 8.0% at ages 15 - 19 and 3.2 - 6.6%at ages 20 - 24, with statistically significant but smaller declines among older cohorts. Placebo analyses applied to Verizon and Sprint's pre-2011 coverage footprint are null. Taken together, these cohort effects imply that the diffusion of the iPhone deepened the decline in births among women under 30 while suppressing the rise in births among older women.

Overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33 - 52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15 - 44. National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency," reads the study

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In general, the findings raise questions about the long-term societal impact of smartphone adoption as a whole, adding another layer to the ongoing conversation about how technology reshapes human behavior, particularly reproductive decisions.