GTA 6 to sell 40 million copies in 4 months, Morgan Stanley predicts

Analysts have lofty estimates for GTA 6 sales, and if they're right, Rockstar's sequel won't just break records--it will define them.

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Take-Two Interactive is standing by GTA 6's incoming November 19 launch, and both gamers and investors are watching with anticipation. The game is expected to have an explosive release with megaton sales amounting in the tens of millions of copies, raking in billions in the process--Morgan Stanley in particular believes GTA 6 could become the fastest-selling game of all time.

According to Investor's Business Daily, Morgan Stanley has forecasted GTA 6 to sell 40 million units through FY27: "We continue to believe TTWO remains uniquely well positioned heading into one of the largest entertainment launches in history, with significant operating leverage potential if GTA 6 outperforms our current assumptions of about 40 million units sold in fiscal 2027,"Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost tells investors.

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The time period is interesting; FY27 ends in March 2027, meaning Morgan Stanley expects GTA 6 to achieve 40 million sales in little over 4 months' time, which is a staggering rate of adoption. For comparison's sake, GTA 5 sold 29 million units in its first month, then eventually slowing to about 5 million per quarter to eventually amass the title's current 230 million cumulative sales.

GTA Launch Sales

• Grand Theft Auto 6 (estimated) - 40 million in 4 months
• Grand Theft Auto 5 (estimated) - 29 million in 1 month
• Grand Theft Auto 4 - 8.5 million in 1 month
• Grand Theft Auto San Andreas - 12 million in 6 months
• Grand Theft Auto 3 - 6 million in 12 months
• Grand Theft Auto Vice City - 3 million in 2 months

There is also an expectation that GTA 6 will release for $80, however nothing has been confirmed on the game's pricing.

The game will release into a somewhat-mature console market, with the PlayStation 5 having just reached 93 million units worldwide. According to IDG Consulting, the current ninth generation console install base was around 127 million by December 2025, and ~40 million purchases within the first 4 months could indicate a ~31% attach rate.