MLC NAND prices have tripled as Samsung shuts its last 2D NAND line and Kioxia plans a full exit by 2029

Global memory semiconductor giants are undergoing a profound structural shift. According to a report by the Chosun Ilbo citing research from market firm Omdia, Samsung Electronics, Kioxia, and Micron Technology are either shutting down or slashing production on their legacy 2D NAND flash production lines.

Samsung has slightly reduced its NAND Flash wafer production forecast, expecting a decline from 4.9 million wafers in 2025 to 4.68 million in 2026. Similarly, SK Hynix is forecasted to reduce output from 1.9 million wafers in 2025 to 1.7 million in 2026. Meanwhile, 64Gb MLC NAND spot prices have surged more than 300% from end-2025 levels and are currently trading in the $20-$28 range. MLC NAND, which stores 2 bits per cell, offers better data retention and durability than 3-bit TLC and 4-bit QLC designs, yet weak profitability has pushed it to the margins.

The main driver behind the production cuts is profitability. Thanks to the AI boom, high-bandwidth memory and advanced 3D NAND exceeding 300 layers have become the industry's focal points, while low-margin legacy 2D NAND is being rapidly sidelined and deprioritized for capital investment.

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Beginning in March, Samsung started gradually shutting down 2D NAND production at its Hwaseong Line 12 and began converting the facility into an advanced 1c DRAM plant. That production line, with a monthly capacity of 80,000 to 100,000 wafers, was Samsung's last 2D NAND manufacturing base. The company has also issued end-of-life notices to customers for its MLC NAND products, with final shipments scheduled for around June, after which supply will cease entirely.

Kioxia issued its own end-of-life notice on March 31, saying it would gradually cease production of 2D NAND and third-generation BiCS flash products. The final order deadline for customers is the end of September this year, with final shipments extending until December 2028 and a full market exit beginning in 2029. Micron, while maintaining MLC NAND production, is limiting output to existing customer demand and is also pulling the plug on its consumer Crucial brand.

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The pace at which major manufacturers are leaving the market is outpacing the tech itself. TrendForce forecasts global MLC NAND flash capacity will decline 41.7% this year compared to the previous year. The gap left in the 2D NAND market is increasingly being filled by Taiwanese and mainland Chinese manufacturers, with Winbond Electronics and Macronix International among the likely beneficiaries.

On the other side of this collapse, memory giants are pivoting toward higher-layer 3D NAND. Samsung kicked off mass production of its 9th-gen 286-layer NAND in April 2024. SK Hynix is already mass-producing 321-layer NAND and supplying customers, putting Samsung slightly behind in the layer-count race. Meanwhile, Kioxia is aiming even higher, with plans to roll out its 10th-gen 332-layer NAND by 2026, all to feed the AI boom that shows no signs of slowing.