China prepares for its AI future without NVIDIA as AI GPU stockpile runs dry in early 2026

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Chinese tech companies are reportedly preparing for an AI future without NVIDIA as their stockpile of AI GPUs will run out in early 2026, with accelerated testing of homegrown AI chips, and a small window for the major decision (and the full switch) from NVIDIA to Huawei is expected to kick start a 3-month disruption.

With more and more US export restrictions hitting China, it is getting harder and harder for the country to acquire the bleeding-edge in AI silicon. Chinese tech giants including Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu are all beginning to test alternative semiconductors to meet the ever-growing AI-related internal and consumer demands, according to industry executives, reports the Financial Times.

These companies have been forced to bring forward their contingency planning as the continued tensions between US and China in the new Trump administration causing headaches in China. Last week we saw the Trump administration stopping the NVIDIA H20 AI GPU from being sold in China, which was already a cut-down version of the AI GPU, and now it's been banned.

These moves have forced Chinese tech companies to pump away using their NVIDIA AI GPU stockpiles, which will reportedly run their AI development until around early 2026, which is causing another issue. The Chinese tech giants will need around 3-6 months before a homegrown, made-in-China AI GPU -- from Huawei -- can be ordered, and delivered.

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Shen Dou is the head of Baidu's AI cloud group, where last week he told analysts that his company could choose from a range of different AI chip options to replace NVIDIA. Shen said: "We believe that over time, domestically developed self-sufficient chips, along with increasingly efficient homegrown software stacks, will jointly form a strong foundation for long-term innovation in China's AI ecosystem".

Alibaba boss Eddie Wu said during an earnings earlier this month: "We are actively exploring diversified solutions to meet rising customer demand".

Tencent president Martin Lau recently said in an earnings call that his company was trying to become more efficient in how it used AI chips, while thinking about alternative options. Lau said: "We should have enough high-end chips to continue our training models for a few more generations going forward". Lau told analysts that Tencent could "potentially make use of other chips" to meet growing inference requirements.

Alternatively, NVIDIA isn't just completely out of China, as the company has planned a new R&D facility in Shanghai that will help navigate US export restrictions, and allow the company to remain competitive in the China AI GPU market. This new R&D facility will focus on local Chinese companies and consumers' needs, so it's not ALL bad, but US export restrictions are changing so quickly, China can't wait for the new NVIDIA facility.