PC refresh cycle flat as half a billion PC users stick with Windows 10

Microsoft recently ended official support for Windows 10, prompting a significant push from the company and its partners to move people to newer devices or upgrade their existing hardware to Windows 11. Well, it's looking increasingly like the Windows 11 transition has been moving at a slower pace than expected, with Dell chiming in on the status of the PC refresh and upgrade cycle as part of the company's recent Q3 2025 earnings call.

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As spotted by Windows Latest, the transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11 for Dell's customer base has been slow. Jeffrey Clarke, the Vice Chairman and COO at Dell, says, "If you were to look at it relative to the previous OS end-of-service, we are 10, 12 points behind at that point with Windows 11 than we were the previous generation."

According to Dell, the Windows install base sits at around 1.5 billion. And with that figure, there are still 500 million Windows users with systems that can be upgraded to Windows 11 who haven't been upgraded. This means that these users are sticking with Windows 10 even though official support for things like regular security updates has ended.

In addition, there are 500 million Windows users on systems older than four years that can't run or install Windows 11. For these users, or customers, the expectation is that they'll make the transition by purchasing a new Windows 11 system. However, even with new PCs arriving with NPUs that can support local AI with small models and apps being optimized and enhanced for both AI-capable GPUs and Windows 11, Dell's outlook for the PC market for the next year is "flat," meaning that the company isn't forecasting any growth, even with the slow Windows 11 uptake.

Of course, with sky-high prices for DRAM memory and NAND storage, this will also factor into the equation or impact the Windows 11 transition and PC cycle refresh. "The fact is the cost basis is going up across all products," Jeffrey Clarke explains. "Everything that uses a CPU has DRAM, has storage. We're going to do things we've always done. We're going to work on configurations. We're going to work on availability, adjust the mix. Our direct model allows us to move demand where supply is. Our direct model allows us to act to the market signals it gives us quicker than anybody else, allows us to price accordingly, and reprice when needed. And we will make our way through that across consumer PCs, commercial PCs, in the server storage, and through our AI servers."