Black Ops 7 sales reportedly halved in Europe, may indicate stronger Game Pass adoption

Estimates from analyst firm GSD indicate that launch sales of Black Ops 7 have been halved in Europe.

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European consumers are buying far fewer copies of Activision's latest Call of Duty game. According to GSD data that was shared with The Games Business, sales of Call of Duty Black Ops 7 are down roughly 50% compared to last year's Black Ops 6. It's worth mentioning that at one point, a Microsoft employee described Black Ops 6 as the highest-grossing Call of Duty game from Activision. This was later removed, however Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella had said that Black Ops 6 was "the biggest Call of Duty release ever."

Black Ops 7 is a different story, at least in Europe. According to the data, Black Ops 7's full game sales are down when compared to both previous Call of Duty games as well as major competitors like Battlefield 6. Estimates indicate Black Ops 7 sold 63% fewer copies than Battlefield 6 in Europe (side note: EA has confirmed that Battlefield 6 sold 7 million copies globally in 3 days).

The news comes a month after Bloomberg discovered that Microsoft missed out on roughly $300 million on Black Ops 6 sales due to the game's inclusion on Game Pass. However, given what Microsoft has said about Black Ops 6, it appears that this was a successful and agreeable trade-off for Microsoft.

The way to think about what's potentially happening here is less that Microsoft is missing out on sales, and more that Microsoft is trying to convert one-off sales into long-term subscription access. That way users have the potential to spend more on a subscription, and its adjacent services and content, than they ever would on a single video game.

The company has repeatedly said that Game Pass is a "high-margin business," which means that it's more profitable in the long run for a myriad of reasons (digital delivery, no need to manufacture/ship content). The real strength of Game Pass is its dynamism; users who subscribe to play something like Call of Duty are paying $30 per month versus $70 for the game, and these users are also far more likely to spend on other things like microtransactions and battle passes.

Therefore, due to the elongated nature of play with games like Black Ops 7, Microsoft could theoretically end up making more money in the long run versus the short- to medium-term cap of $70 for the base game.

Microsoft has yet to disclose sales figures for Black Ops 7, but given the company carefully withholds and/or obfuscates most of its data, we probably won't get those numbers at all.