Black Ops 6 on Game Pass may not have significantly cannibalized sales after all

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One analyst expected Microsoft to lose around 6 million Black Ops 6 sales because of Game Pass, but that number might actually be lower.

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Microsoft's latest bet may have paid off, but we can't know how well things went without actual figures. The latest gambit sees Microsoft trading short-term sales for long-term ecosystem growth. That's why Microsoft put Call of Duty, a $31 billion franchise that can sell 25 million games in a single year, onto Xbox Game Pass.

The goal is to grow subscribers and player numbers at the potential sacrifice of game sales--a trend that has punctuated Microsoft's games business since the introduction of the Xbox Game Pass subscription service. Microsoft has admitted that Game Pass can "cannibalize" game sales, a concept that sees users simply paying $20 to subscribe to Game Pass rather than paying $70 to buy the full the game.

The result is less upfront cash for the potential of longer-term revenues through consistent subscription earnings. The idea is to lease out a digital game to consumers for a lower upfront fee in the hopes of capturing their attention, spending, time, and engagement through a variety of new content, whether it be separate games or new updates for games like Black Ops 6.

Microsoft has said that Black Ops 6's inclusion on Game Pass is a big success. Black Ops 6 set new opening weekend records, with the game achieving the #1 total players, #1 hours played, and #1 total matches out of any Call of Duty game in a comparative opening weekend period.

The game saw big sales spikes on both PlayStation and Steam, where full game sales were up 60% over Modern Warfare 3.

As per Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella:

"Last week's launch of Black Ops 6 was the biggest Call of Duty release ever, setting a record for day one players, as well as Game Pass subscriber adds on launch day. And unit sales on PlayStation and Steam were also up over 60% year-over-year."

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Niko Partners analyst Daniel Ahmad has also chimed in, saying that data indicates the higher Steam/PlayStation numbers have helped offset any potential losses from Xbox cannibalization. This could further mean that the replacive effect of users switching to Game Pass over the $70 full game isn't as substantial as expected from analysts.

"Based on preliminary data I've seen it looks like paid unit sales were similar to MW3, with PS & Steam offsetting the decline on Xbox. But the launch into Game Pass added a significant number of players into the ecosystem via Xbox and PC," Ahmad said on Twitter.

"In other words, they still generated a healthy amount from paid sales and are also benefiting from subscription revenue / larger overall player base."