Elon Musk says AGI will be smarter than the smartest humans by 2025, 2026 at the latest

Elon Musk has predicted that the development of artificial intelligence will get to the stage of being smarter than the smartest humans by 2025, and if not, by 2026.

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In an explosive interview on X Spaces, the Tesla and SpaceX boss told Norway wealth fund CEO Nicolai Tangen that IA was constrained by electricity supply and that the next-gen version of Grok, the AI chatbot from Musk's xAI startup, was expected to finish training by May, next month.

When discussing the timeline of developing AGI, or artificial general intelligence, Musk said: "If you define AGI (artificial general intelligence) as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years". A monumental amount of AI GPU power will be pumped into training Musk's next-gen Grok 3, with 100,000 x NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs required for training.

Earlier this year, Tesla said it would be sending billions of dollars buying NVIDIA AI GPUs and AMD AI GPUs, so these numbers will radically change throughout the year as Tesla scoops up more AI silicon from NVIDIA. The recent $500 million investment into the Dojo Supercomputer is "only equivalent" to 10,000 x NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs, said Musk in January 2024, adding, "Tesla will spend more than that on NVIDIA hardware this year. The table stakes for being competitive in AI are at least several billion dollars per year at this point".