Activision likely to beat $7.6 billion outlook on Call of Duty success

Activision-Blizzard expects to make a historic $7.765 billion in 2020, driven by spending surges in its biggest games. Analyst numbers indicate could actually beat this estimate.

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As of September 30, 2020, Activision-Blizzard forecasts $7.675 billion in net revenues for the 2020 calendar year, up a whopping $175 million from 2018's all-time highs. The company's Q4 performance might skyrocket it past these internal estimates.

While Activision-Blizzard's Q3'20 was no slouch (it hit a 10-year operating profit high, Activision segment earnings were up 270% to $773 million thanks to Warzone), Q4'20 could be a real home run. According to the NPD Group, two Call of Duty games dominated 2020's sales revenues charts: Black Ops Cold War and Modern Warfare were the best-earning games in the U.S. in 2020.

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This isn't the only knockout success Activision-Blizzard has enjoyed in Q4. World of Warcraft Shadowlands is now the fastest-selling PC game of all time with 3.7 million copies sold in a single day. Typically the company doesn't see huge surges in sales in two of its segments at the same time; Blizzard aims at recurring revenues with existing titles via monetization, whereas tentpole Call of Duty releases round out the Q4 holiday period with a big sales surge.

These sales are all in tandem with the new interconnected Call of Duty ecosystem, which consists of mobile games, free-to-play monetization via Warzone, and two mainline premium games all existing and making money at the same time. This ecosystem is a direct result of Activision's new four-part plan that diversifies franchises and IPs across all available platforms.

Right now it appears Activision-Blizzard is firing on all cylinders, and its Calendar Year 2020 period could be eye-opening for investors, competitors, and consumers.