A recently discovered asteroid sparked fears after measurements gave it a low chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. NASA has now updated the probability, with the space agency finally reaching a conclusion after conducting multiple measurements.
The asteroid in question is named 2024 YR4, and it was initially discovered last year on Christmas Day, with astronomers predicting the space rock, which measures anywhere between 130 and 300 feet wide, has a 1.3% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. After manual follow-up observations were conducted, the probability was increased to 2.3%, and then to 3.1% after even more follow-up observations.
Notably, if 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it would release 500 times more energy than the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War 2, making it more than capable of wiping out an entire city.
Additional measurements made on February 19 - 20 resulted in the probability of impact being reduced to just 0.28%, and now NASA has issued another update on its Planetary Defense blog, with the space agency writing on February 24 that the chance of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has been reduced to 0%.
NASA writes, "experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL's) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid's trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century."
While Earth appears to be completely safe from 2024 YR4 that hasn't ruled out the Moon, with NASA writing, "There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%."