AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates

AMD's next-gen Radeon RX Vega is nearly here. Let's prepare for its launch with predictions and live updates.

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The Latest Information & Rumors

Latest Updates on Radeon RX Vega

I'll keep updating this article with the latest news on Radeon RX Vega.

5/24: AMD delayed Radeon RX Vega until July?

AMD CEO Lisa Su said that the company will be launching its new Radeon Vega Frontier Edition with 16GB of HBM2 "towards the latter half of June. You will see the enthusiast gaming platform, the machine learning platform, the professional graphics platform very soon thereafter. And so we will be launching Vega across all of the market segments over the next couple of months".

5/19: AMD Radeon RX Vega Will Be Showcased At Computex 2017 on May 31

Radeon Technologies Group boss Raja Koduri has said that AMD will be showcasing Radeon RX Vega at Computex on May 31. We will be at the show, and will be bringing you the latest on AMD's new Radeon RX Vega graphics card.

5/19: AMD announces Radeon Vega Frontier Edition

AMD has announced the Radeon Vega Frontier Edition, a professional graphics card with 16GB of HBM2 and an estimated 12.5 TFLOPs of compute performance. This is not the Radeon RX Vega graphics card we're expecting, but more of a Titan X variant with Vega hitting 16GB HBM2.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 02

5/17: Leaked Specs on Radeon RX Vega?

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 11

I wrote this article over the span of a few days, and in that time, there was so much Radeon RX Vega leaks and news that I'm going to include them at the top of this article. The top of this article will be the 'live update' part, where I will constantly add all of the content that is breaking.

EXCLUSIVE: Only 16,000 Cards at Launch

Let's start with my exclusive report on AMD launching Radeon RX Vega with just 16,000 units, something that my source told me was over HBM2 scarcity.

Radeon RX Vega Nova/Eclipse/Core

This news broke right as I was getting to the end of this article, with a rumor that AMD would be calling its first three Radeon RX Vega cards: RX Vega Nova, RX Vega Eclipse, and RX Vega Core.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Line Up (My List)

AMD will have up to 7 different Radeon RX Vega graphics cards, as it needs to hit 5 different price points and products from NVIDIA from the GeForce GTX 1070 right up to the GTX 1080 Ti, and even the new TITAN Xp.

  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (GTX 1070) - 4GB HBM2, cut down Vega 11 GPU
  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (GTX 1080) - 4GB HBM2, cut down Vega 11 GPU
  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (GTX 1080 11Gbps) - 8GB HBM2, cut down Vega 10 GPU (slightly higher clocks)
  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (GTX 1080 Ti) - 8GB HBM2, full Vega 10 GPU
  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (TITAN Xp) - 16GB HBM2, dual full Vega 10 GPUs

Where Do We Start...

If there's something I've been excited for over the last few years, it's for AMD to make a real competitor to any of NVIDIA's high-end graphics cards. The company tried and did not succeed with the Fiji GPU architecture and the release of the Radeon R9 Fury X.

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It might have rolled onto the market with the exciting new HBM1 memory, but it was a GPU that felt like it was held together with rubber bands and a toothpick - with high temperatures, annoying wine from its massive AIO watercooler, and not-so-great performance (at least for the first year). HBM1 didn't provide a huge increase in performance, and really only started opening up at 4K and beyond - except that the 4GB of HBM1 wasn't enough for 4K gaming.

AMD had released the rebranded Radeon R9 300 series led by the R9 390X, which had 8GB of GDDR5 and was advertised as 4K gaming ready because of its 8GB RAM. But, the Fury X had 4GB of HBM1 RAM - technologically superior to the GDDR5 on the R9 390X at the time, but was limited by its 4GB capacity. Fury X didn't really do too well on the market, and while gamers still use it - the GTX 980 Ti was the card of choice at the time.

NVIDIA continued pummel AMD with the push of the GeForce GTX 980 Ti, and then AMD began teasing its Polaris GPU architecture - months after the company spun off its GPU division into Radeon Technologies Group. Polaris was destined to be the new mid-range champion, and it became that - but not without multiple problems along the way.

Polaris 10 ended up being a very refined Hawaii-like performer and promised power efficiency, but AMD got nailed against the wall with Polaris and its inefficiency in power consumption. Even on the new 14nm FinFET process and the brand new Polaris architecture, the Radeon RX 480 still uses nearly as much power as the much faster GeForce GTX 1080 - something that NVIDIA launched before AMD could get RX 480 onto the market.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 01

In our own testing, the AMD Radeon RX 480 reference card saw a total system power consumption of 250W - while the much faster, and obviously more power efficient Pascal architecture powering the GeForce GTX 1080 used just 230W. Even now, the GeForce GTX 1080 Ti will get closer to 280-300W, but offers performance beyond anything AMD can muster right now.

AMD has just rebranded its Radeon RX 480 into the RX 580, something that I heard from industry sources last year was meant to be a refined RX 480 - and it arrived with not so much as a bang. We're still looking at stupidly high power consumption on a mid-range graphics card, more than the RX 480 - and way more than the GTX 1080, or even the new GTX 1080 with 11Gbps RAM.

We're now staring into the night, at the star that is Vega, and it's close... real close.

But something happened along the way, and I think we're looking at the mess of it now. NVIDIA surprised AMD with the GeForce GTX 1080 Ti, and its sheer power over the GTX 1080, offering Titan X(P) - that can't be confused with the TITAN Xp (little 'p'), for just $699. Considering the original Titan X launched for $1200, the GTX 1080 Ti priced at $699 was nothing short of amazing. AMD had absolutely nothing in return, as I don't think their Radeon RX Vega - at least at the time, could begin to compete with the GTX 1080.

I think that the Radeon RX Vega was meant to be a GTX 1080 competitor, but why the hell has AMD waited so long? The GeForce GTX 1080 is now a year old, and AMD hasn't had a GTX 1080 competitor since, let alone a GTX 1080 Ti competitor, or a Titan X competitor, or a TITAN Xp competitor - heck, we don't have a GTX 1070 competitor, or a GTX 1080 11Gbps competitor, either.

It's kind of embarrassing for AMD - at least from some perspectives. I'm talking purely from a high-end/enthusiast perspective, as there are so many other things that AMD do well - it's just for now, one of them isn't high-end/enthusiast graphics cards - at least, not yet.

Known Vega GPU Details

What We Know About Vega So Far

AMD has detailed its next-gen Vega architecture a fair bit already, where we know it will have HBM2 technology, High Bandwidth Cache (HBC), and up to 512TB of virtual address space - something we'll get into soon.

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There's also the next-gen Compute Engine, the Drawn Stream Binning Rasterizer, and Rapid Packed Math goodness. Most of this doesn't matter, as we just want to know how fast it is - and how good it'll run the latest, and future games, right?!

Before we dive into that, here's what we know about Vega for sure:

Vega is based on the 14nm FinFET process from AMD, and is "the biggest improvement in our graphics IP in the past five years" according to Scott Wasson, from AMD. The company has completely redesigned the geometry engine, with Wasson explaining: "It now has the capability to process more than twice as many polygons per clock cycle than we could in our previous generation".

We should expect AMD to use the Vega 10 GPU for the flagship Radeon RX Vega graphics card, with 4096 stream processors, 256 TMUs, 64 ROPs, 8GB of HBM2 on a 2048-bit memory bus, and a TDP of around 250-300W. Performance wise, up to 12.5 TFLOPs of compute performance is expected, beating the GeForce GTX 1080 Ti - but remember, this is the best RX Vega - there will be more than one.

AMD's Thought Process on Vega

The only thing I can think of is that AMD had a few different plans for Vega: first, I think they were looking at the GTX 1080 and seeing the $599 pricing, and thinking they could best the GTX 1080 performance. Right? Well, that was a May 2016 release - and AMD is still yet to release their Radeon RX Vega, so now we're a year on - and the GTX 1080 Ti is here for $100 more, offering up to 30% more performance at 4K and beyond.

4K and beyond is where AMD wants to nail performance, as the 1080p and 1440p markets are now saturated with their mid-range Polaris-powered graphics cards with the Radeon RX 400 and RX 500 series cards. AMD can't come out and market the Radeon RX Vega for anything less than enthusiast 4K gaming and high-end/future VR gaming. It's that simple. We saw it with the Radeon R9 Fury X and Radeon R9 390X - as I explained above, and AMD needs to not repeat that.

Secondly, HBM2 is going to be in seriously low volume throughout 2017 - and it's going to be expensive. GDDR5X isn't cheap, but HBM2 is much more expensive, and AMD won't have the HBM2 quantity it'll need - especially if Radeon RX Vega is a surprise smash hit.

Meet The Radeon RX Vega Family

More Than One, Is Better Than None

AMD won't be releasing just a single Radeon RX Vega graphics card, as I've been told that Vega isn't a season, it's a "destination." This destination is hopefully AMD's return to form in the high-end/enthusiast graphics card market, especially after the high hopes of Fiji and the Fury X.

I'm expecting three cards to be announced at launch, and then faster cards to follow through in the months after launch, and into early 2018. This is what I'm expecting right now:

AMD Radeon RX Vega Line Up (My List)

AMD will have up to seven different Radeon RX Vega graphics cards, as it needs to hit five different price points and products from NVIDIA from the GeForce GTX 1070 right up to the GTX 1080 Ti, and even the new TITAN Xp.

  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (GTX 1070) - 4GB/8GB HBM2, cut down Vega 11 GPU
  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (GTX 1080) - 4GB HBM2, cut down Vega 10 GPU
  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (GTX 1080 11Gbps) - 8GB HBM2, cut down Vega 10 GPU (slightly higher clocks)
  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (GTX 1080 Ti) - 8GB HBM2, full Vega 10 GPU
  • AMD Radeon RX Vega (TITAN Xp) - 16GB HBM2, dual full Vega 10 GPUs

HBM2 & HBCC = FTW

HBM2

AMD was the first to market with a consumer graphics card using HBM1 technology, but it was mainly an experiment for things to come. The Radeon R9 Fury X and its siblings in the R9 Fury and R9 Nano were good cards, held back by the 28nm process and the first revision of HBM1 tech.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 04

HBM1 is limited to 4GB total, but HBM2 will allow for multiple stacks - leading up to 16GB, or more. We should expect Radeon RX Vega graphics cards with over 16GB of HBM2 in the professional markets, but 4-8GB cards will be destined for us consumers - and I'll explain why that's not a bad thing.

HBCC

HBM2 and HBCC are going to get confused in the very near future, I can see it now - but they're different technologies that will work hand-in-hand. HBM2 is the memory technology that will be used on Radeon RX Vega, offering some great bandwidth numbers of up to 512GB/sec - but it'll be the memory footprint that makes the difference. We will see higher minimum FPS results from the HBCC, something that could let AMD push out Radeon RX Vega with just 4GB of HBM2 and really compete with 8-11GB of GDDR5X on the GTX 1080 and GTX 1080 Ti from NVIDIA.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 03

Just like the Fiji-powered Radeon R9 Fury X, we will see smaller graphics cards thanks to the smaller footprint of HBM2 that sits on the interposer with the Vega NCU. High Bandwidth Cache Controller, or HBCC, is the big deal here - something AMD will surely rub in NVIDIA's face in the coming weeks and months leading into, and after the release of Vega.

AMD's exciting new High Bandwidth Cache Controller will be one of the shining stars of Radeon RX Vega, as it acts like a smart controller for your framebuffer. We should see AMD keeping up with the GeForce GTX 1080 Ti and its 11GB of GDDR5X, while only packing 8GB of VRAM - thanks to HBC, and its memory management.

AMD showed this off at their recent Capsaicin and Cream event at GDC 17 earlier this year, with Deus Ex: Mankind Divided seeing a massive 50%+ increase in average FPS, and over 100% increase in minimum FPS. Some truly amazing results, but as always - I need to wait until the card is in my hands with my personal testing before I pass judgment.

NVIDIA's Counter Move With Refreshed Pascal

NVIDIA's Post-Vega Strategy

Depending on multiple factors, NVIDIA will be able to crush anything AMD throws at them - short of a massive surprise. AMD will have to have either:

  • Faster cards, at the same price.
  • Similar performance, but cheaper.

If we see the fastest Radeon RX Vega not beating the GTX 1080 Ti, then NVIDIA won't have anything to worry about. In the case that the fastest SKU of Radeon RX Vega beats the pants off of the GTX 1080 Ti, then NVIDIA has to simply drop the price of their GTX 1080 Ti - all without releasing a new product.

Better yet, NVIDIA could lose money on their cards and sell them at, or below cost in order to crush Team Red.

GeForce GTX 20 Series

I reported on the purported GeForce GTX 2080 and its various GTX 20 series cards in October last year, with the GTX 2080 to rock a refreshed GP102 GPU - something that could explain the relationship between NVIDIA and Samsung. In August 2016, I reported that Samsung would be making GPUs for NVIDIA on its 14nm FinFET process, which is a strange move considering NVIDIA has had TSMC as their manufacturing partner for what feels like forever.

Speculated specifications on NVIDIA GeForce GTX 20 series graphics cards:

  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2080 Ti - GP102/3384/384-bit/GDDR6
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2080 - GP104/2560/256-bit/GDDR6
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2070 - GP104/2048/256-bit/GDDR5X
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2060 Ti 6GB - GP106/1280/192-bit/GDDR5
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2060 6GB - GP106/1024/192-bit/GDDR5
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2050 - GP107/768/128-bit/GDDR5

Speculated price on NVIDIA GeForce GTX 20 series graphics cards:

  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2080 Ti - $799
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2080 - $499
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2070 - $349
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2060 Ti 6GB - $229
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2060 6GB - $179
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 2050 - $139

And that's not even considering Volta, NVIDIA's next-gen GPU architecture that will blend the worlds of HBM2 and GDDR5X/GDDR6 into GeForce graphics cards.

The Next Vega: Even Better

Vega 10 Will Be Good, But Vega 20... OH BOY

Vega 10 is exciting, but you know what - Vega 20 is going to be a freakin' gigantic leap forward. The last rumors we heard on Vega 20 were during CES 2017 in January, where the rumors had Vega 20 targeted for a launch in the second half of 2018, on the new 7nm node.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 05

Vega 20 will also reportedly rock 64 compute units with 2x FP16 performance, 4-stack HBM2 with 1TB/sec of bandwidth - and offering 16GB or 32GB. There will be PCIe 4.0 x16 support, with a TDP of 150-300W. These are all rumors specs, but if this is in line with reality - Vega 20 is where the fun will really begin with Radeon RX Vega.

Vega 10 Specifications

This is where AMD should fight against NVIDIA in the GTX 1070, GTX 1080 and upcoming GTX 1080 Ti.

GPU: 14nm Vega 10 (64 NCUs)

Performance: 12 TFLOPs of single precision performance (750 GFLOPS of double precision)

GPU clock speeds: 1465MHz on reference, 1600MHz+ on AIB partner cards

RAM: 8-16GB of HBM2 (512GB/sec bandwidth)

PCIe: PCIe 3.0 x16

TDP: 225W

Release: May/June 2016

Dual Vega 10 Specifications

Reduced clock speeds, but dual Vega 10 GPUs - 4-stack HBM2, so 1TB/sec memory bandwidth (16-32GB)

GPU: 14nm Vega 10 (64 NCUs) x 2 (128 NCUs total)

Performance: 24 TFLOPs (12 TFLOPs per GPU) of single precision performance (1.5 TFLOPs of double precision)

GPU clock speeds: 1200MHz+ reference only

RAM: 16-32GB of HBM2 (1024GB/sec bandwidth)

PCIe: PCIe 3.0 x16

TDP: 300W

Release: Late 2017

Vega 20 Specifications

Professional/workstation card, the Titan X of AMD's Vega line up in a way. Shaders are set up differently on Vega 20, so we should see some exciting things with the shift to 7nm and the compute performance. If we do hit 20TFLOPs+ of single precision, we're in for a world of performance on the workstation side of things before Navi hits in late-2018, early 2019.

GPU: 7nm Vega 20 (64 NCUs)

Performance: Interesting - 35-40TFLOPs half precision (20TFLOPs+ of single precision)

GPU clock speeds: Faster clock speeds, nothing concrete

RAM: 16-32GB of HBM2 (1024GB/sec bandwidth)

PCIe: PCIe 4.0 x16 host connection

TDP: 150-300W

Release: First half 2018

The Road To Navi

Navi Is Going To Be AMAZING, Hopefully

Navi is going to be the successor to Vega, built on the even smaller 7nm node, offering what should amount to twice the power of a GTX 1080 Ti, and some. It will feature something AMD is only referring to as "next-gen" memory, and it will be used with the new PCIe 4.0 standard.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 08

We should expect Navi in 2019, and according to my industry sources, Vega will lead into Navi - and Navi is going to blow us all away. You've got to get to Vega first, AMD.

Navi 10 Estimated Specifications

Navi will be arriving in a single- and dual-GPU card with Navi 10 and Navi 10 x2, with the dual-GPU variant set to be an absolute monster.

GPU: 7nm Navi 10 (128 NCUs)

Performance: 50TFLOPs+ half precision, 30TFLOPs single precision

GPU clock speeds: Unknown

RAM: 16-128GB of "Nexgen Memory"

PCIe: PCIe 4.0 x16 host connection

TDP: 150-300W

Release: 2019+

Dual Navi 10 Estimated Specifications

This is just nuts, maybe some of this will hit - with my estimates, it'll be interesting to come back to this in 2 years time.

GPU: 7nm Navi 10 (128 NCUs) x 2 (256 NCUs total)

Performance: 100TFLOPs+ half precision, 60TFLOPs single precision

GPU clock speeds: Unknown

RAM: 32-256GB of "Nexgen Memory"

PCIe: PCIe 4.0 x16 host connection

TDP: 150-300W

Release: 2019+

Performance Expectations

If everything goes right: AMD could ride out a smooth launch with Radeon RX Vega, providing there aren't HBM2 shortages like I've exclusively reported - and that there are driver optimizations and game support on day one for Vega.

AMD needs another Radeon 9700 PRO right now, so let's say we aim for GTX 1080 Ti beating performance - we'd need 20% more performance than NVIDIA's super-fast GTX 1080 Ti for that. But then it comes down to price, so with an estimated $599-$699 price AMD could topple NVIDIA off of its 'best graphics card' reign with their fastest Radeon RX Vega.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 09

The exciting new High Bandwidth Cache Controller is going to be the star of the Radeon RX Vega show, along side the Vega NCU of course. HBCC provides AMD with an opportunity of having something NVIDIA doesn't, but it needs to nail that competitive side in order to leap forward. HBCC could be the key, but it's something we'll have to wait and see the real-world performance of - not just pre-baked demos or hand chosen games.

If something goes wrong: This is what I worry about. AMD has over promised and barely delivered with Radeon R9 Fury X... and then Polaris was nowhere near as power efficient as NVIDIA's refreshed Pascal architecture. AMD have been getting kicked all over the playground because of it, so Vega needs to be a monster.

In this scenario, let's say AMD's flagship Radeon RX Vega doesn't beat GTX 1080 Ti, but comes close. NVIDIA has their GeForce GTX 1080, custom/overclocked GTX 1080s, the new GTX 1080 with 11Gbps GDDR5X, custom/overclocked GTX 1080s with 11Gbps GDDR5X, the GTX 1080 Ti, custom/overclocked GTX 1080 Ti, the first Titan X(P) and the new Titan Xp. AMD has its work beyond cut out for them, and I think it will be impossible for them to beat all of those cards.

So, let's say AMD beats the GTX 1080... and evens out against the new GTX 1080 with 11Gbps GDDR5X. AMD would need to price this card at $599, and have it beat the GTX 1080 by at least 10% in 1080p/1440p and even beat it by a larger margin at 4K - but still not beat the GTX 1080 Ti.

Then the custom/overclocked Radeon RX Vega could beat the GTX 1080 with 11Gbps GDDR5X, and the dual-GPU version of Radeon RX Vega (if it's even a thing) could beat the GTX 1080 Ti. This is a worrisome alternate reality, as it leaves AMD wide open for a counter attack from NVIDIA with refreshed Pascal cards that will utterly destroy the Vega cards.

Final Thoughts

Whatever happens, this is the most exciting time in history for GPU technology and graphics cards. I've lived through Matrox, 3dfx, NVIDIA's first GPU, the ATI days with Radeon 9700 PRO, and so much more. But things are progressing so fast right now, with NVIDIA close to an entire generation ahead of AMD, and still pushing for more - just look at the monstrous new Volta-based Tesla V100 for example.

NVIDIA is deploying HBM2 on its next-gen Volta GPU offerings, eyeing off GDDR6 on their next-gen consumer GeForce graphics cards, while AMD is ready to throw down the consumer HBM2 graphics card gauntlet with Radeon RX Vega. HBM2 is going to be a large step forward, only if there are reasons to buy it.

AMD Radeon RX Vega Predictions, With Live Updates 10

First, AMD will need to make smaller Radeon RX Vega graphics cards thanks to the space saved on the PCB by HBM2. If we see Radeon R9 Nano-sized graphics cards with the power of GTX 1080/GTX 1080 Ti in Radeon RX Vega form, I'll be a happy man. If we see water cooled graphics cards like the Radeon R9 Fury X and it doesn't beat NVIDIA's latest and greatest, I'll be sorely disappointed.

I think we'll see a successful Radeon RX Vega launch from AMD, but they'll need to follow through much quicker with a successor in Vega 20 and then Navi 10. It has been two years since the Fiji architecture was born with the Radeon R9 Fury X... AMD can't wait that long to succeed Vega, and that's the sad thing.

I'm already talking about the successor to Vega and how AMD will need it to survive, and we're not even at the launch of Radeon RX Vega... NVIDIA has so much untapped power left in Pascal it's not funny. They could tweak voltages and the cooling on a GTX 2080/1180 graphics card, and hit 2.5GHz on GPU speeds while reaching 12Gbps on GDDR5X overclocked. This would be enough to bury Radeon RX Vega.

AMD needs a miracle with Radeon RX Vega, and while I have faith in it - I need to see the final product, in my hands, with my testing before I make my final judgment. HBCC is going to be something beyond exciting to test, as well as HBM2 and the Vega GPU architecture. While it sounds like I'm anti-AMD right now, I'm just being very realistic. Polaris 20 wasn't exciting, as it was a rebrand that used more power than its predecessor.

Radeon RX Vega is the most exciting graphics card release, in my opinion, in 5 years+. This is down to AMD promising a next-gen GPU architecture, mixed with HBM2 and sprinkled with HBCC. Bring. It. ON.

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Anthony joined the TweakTown team in 2010 and has since reviewed 100s of graphics cards. Anthony is a long time PC enthusiast with a passion of hate for games built around consoles. FPS gaming since the pre-Quake days, where you were insulted if you used a mouse to aim, he has been addicted to gaming and hardware ever since. Working in IT retail for 10 years gave him great experience with custom-built PCs. His addiction to GPU tech is unwavering and has recently taken a keen interest in artificial intelligence (AI) hardware.

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