The consumer SSD market will feel the pain from IMFT's flash cross over from 25nm to 20nm for at least a few more months. When IMFT gets their flash together, consumer SSD prices should return to 2012 levels - at least we hope so.
There are three bright lights at the end of the tunnel. The first is the obvious, IMFT increases yields on 20nm flash. The second comes from a report at SeekingAlpha. They speculate that Micron is converting a fab in Singapore from DRAM to NAND. This would decrease worldwide DRAM wafer production by six percent, but have a positive impact on the flash market.
The third light at the end of the tunnel is SanDisk and Toshiba's announcements of a transition to new 19nm 1y flash. Current Flash Forward 19nm flash is 19mm by 26mm cells. The new 1y flash moves to 19mm by 19.5mm. This will allow more flash per wafer and increase global supply.
Moving forward, the fabs have the rest of the SSD industry by the you know what's. SanDisk, Intel, Toshiba, Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix control the world's supply of flash. We have to wonder how long the SSD fab-less companies have left and what it will take to survive moving forward.
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