Xbox consoles will 'flatline' to 42 million users by the end of 2025, analyst firm predicts

Microsoft will end the year with 42 million Xbox console users, analyst firm Omdia predicts.

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While competitors Nintendo and Sony share console sales figures, Microsoft stopped reporting Xbox units in the disastrous Xbox One era. Since then, Microsoft typically only reveals a few key data points: revenues, maybe an update on monthly active users and time spent playing cloud games. If a few big games launched, odds are that Microsoft once again took over Sony's PlayStation charts because their titles are now breaking exclusivity.

As for Microsoft's home turf, things are looking rather...saturated. The company has acknowledged lack of growth on console, prompting a hard pivot off-platform with breaking software exclusivity and offering services like Game Pass and cloud streaming on PC and mobile. One analyst firm believes that Xbox's user base will 'flatline' to ~42 million by the end of 2025. Other estimates say that the Xbox Series X/S shipments could be as high as 35.9 million, but this isn't technically the installed base of users. The cross-over between the Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S generation remains unclear.

Omdia explains their forecast on the Xbox user base:

"At the start of this decade, Microsoft set out an ambitious goal-to reach a billion gamers worldwide. The strategy relied on three pillars the rapid growth of Xbox Game Pass, cloud streaming to multiple devices, and strong adoption of the Xbox Series X/S consoles.

"Five years later, none of these have scaled as the company hoped.

"Game Pass growth has stalled and cloud gaming hasn't resonated to a new audience, meanwhile, the active installed base of Xbox consoles is estimated to be flatlining around 42m players by the end of 2025, according to Omdia's Games Addressable Market Metrics Database."

So how does Xbox stack up against rivals PlayStation and Nintendo?

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It's tough to compare Sony's monthly active users (MAUs) to the Xbox user forecast because the MAUs include anyone playing on the PlayStation Network, including users on PC. With that in mind, PlayStation's MAUs have capped out at an all-time high of 129 million users during Holiday 2024.

And for reference, Sony has shipped over 80 million PlayStation 5's so far.

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It's also tough to compare Nintendo's figures because they aren't 1:1 with the forecast, either. Nintendo reports annual users, meaning those that have signed in and used the Nintendo Switch for a certain amount of time over a 12-month period.

Nintendo had 128 million annual players from July 2024 - July 2025, and the Switch 2 launched into this prime active user base. As a result, the Switch 2 became the fastest-selling console of all time with over 6 million consoles sold in 7 weeks.

Meanwhile, the base Switch family is currently at 153 million shipments worldwide.