Analyst: GTA 6's delay will drop console sales by -2% in 2025

Analyst firm DFC Intelligence believes that GTA 6's delay will impact growth in the console hardware market through 2025.

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Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to be so big that it'll collectively uplift the video games market. Since it's only releasing on two consoles at launch--PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S--the game is forecasted to significantly drive up console adoption during a critical lower-than-expected point in the games industry.

Now that GTA 6 has been delayed outside of 2025 to May 2026, consoles are now expected to be relatively flat year-over-year. The "survive 'til '25" mantra has now shifted to next year, and now developers have breathing room to launch their games without the worry of GTA 6 vacuuming up all the game sales and player time.

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However, there's a silver lining: Nintendo's new Switch 2 is expected to help spike sales in Japan, with DFC expecting about +25% in console sales in the region. Nintendo, for its part, has delivered a Switch 2 hardware sales forecast that's been called quite conservative by analysts.

"...With GTA VI now delayed until May 2026 and industry tariffs driving up prices, the outlook has shifted. The delay of GTA VI is particularly impactful, as it was expected to boost hardware sales for the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S during the critical holiday season.

"As a result, DFC now projects a decline in console video game software sales in both North America and Europe. North America is expected to see a 2% decline in 2025, with Europe expected to see revenue remain flat from 2024 levels."

"When GTA VI launches a year from now, it should help drive the industry to further heights. From 2026 through 2029 we expect to see the video game industry set new hardware and software sales records."