Global PC shipments grew 6.7% in Q1 2025, but it was due to tariff uncertainty

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According to a new report at Counterpoint Research, global PC shipments increased 6.7% year-over-year, which is a sizable increase, with shipments from companies like Apple and Lenovo rising by over 10%. However, this data doesn't paint the picture of a PC market that is rapidly growing, but one that has been responding to months of US tariff policy talk and action from the Trump administration.

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Global PC shipments by OEMs for Q1 2025, image credit: Counterpoint Research.

PC manufacturing, which includes various hardware and components, is heavily centralized in Asia and concentrated within China. Counterpoint Research notes that the impressive growth is due to "PC vendors accelerating shipments ahead of US tariffs" and that the current economic and global trade situation will dampen growth and PC shipment momentum throughout 2025.

On the plus side, with the end of free and official Windows 10 support on the horizon and AI-enabled PCs becoming the norm, consumers and enterprises alike are buying new or replacing older hardware for the AI era. The report notes that the company's AI-capable M4-powered MacBooks drove Apple's impressive 17% year-over-year shipment growth for Q1 2025.

With US tariffs and trade disputes focusing on China, companies are actively shifting manufacturing out of China to countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico. However, as tariff changes will also affect manufacturing and exports from these countries to the US, "US tariff policies have caused uncertainty in the PC industry in 2025, with manufacturers facing escalating costs and potential supply and demand contraction."

Even with exemptions placed on devices like smartphones and laptops, the US tariffs on semiconductors could "dampen demand and investment in AI infrastructure and devices." This uncertainty has led Counterpoint Research to downgrade its global PC shipment forecast to around 5% for 2025.

"The US market remains the most important market for AI PCs to demonstrate their capabilities and the best market to sell advanced AI-enabled devices," Counterpoint Research's Associate Director David Naranjo said. "High tariffs, or tariff policy uncertainties, will likely discourage consumers or enterprises from buying new devices with additional costs, which in turn will suppress growth."