The price of NVIDIA's Hopper H100 AI GPU in the Chinese black market is coming down "rapidly," with spot prices falling more than 10% in the short term.
In a new report from UDN, the market is watching the impact of this wave of selling on the overall supply and demand, and whether the normal market for AI GPUs will be affected. NVIDIA's new H200 AI GPU is about to be released, upgraded with HBM3E memory, meaning that the price of AI servers with H100 AI GPUs on the black market in mainland China have plummeted in anticipation of H200.
At the time of replacing the old H100 AI GPUs with newer H200 AI GPUs, scalpers who previously had lots of stock of H100 AI GPUs are trying to get rid of them all -- and sometimes, in large quantities -- which is quickly bringing the price down on the black market.
US export restrictions have all but stopped high-end GPUs and AI GPU hardware from China, but this doesn't mean there aren't black market dealers who aren't scared of taking (a big) risk and hoarding NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs in large quantities. UDN reports that most of the H100 AI GPU sales are now going underground, whereas in mainland China, you can purchase the H100 through a purchasing agent or shell company that's been established overseas.
Mainland universities, research institutions, and even Chinese companies can get banned NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs as long as they go through these very special channels. Because the H100 is banned in China, scalpers can charge a hefty profit for the AI GPUs.
The price of AI servers powered by NVIDIA H100 AI GPUs in mainland China was once as high as 3 million yuan (around $420,000 USD or so) which is a 50% increase over the official $280,000 to $300,000 USD cost. If you remove shipping costs, tariffs and other charges, scalpers can easily make 10-20% profit... but not anymore.
NVIDIA's new H200 AI GPU isn't far away, with AI servers packed full of H100 AI GPUs have fallen to $2.7 million to $2.8 million yuan, with a spot price in Hong Kong of $2.6 million yuan, a drop of over 10% reports UDN.
