Jon Peddie Research has pushed out a new report for the GPU market in Q3 2022, with the biggest drop in GPU shipments since the 2009 recession.
GPU and CPU shipments dropped significantly year-over-year by 19% with GPU seeing a compound growth rate of 2.8% between 2022-2026, where they'll see an install base of 3.1 billion units at the end of JPR's forecast period. In the next 5 years, JPR predicts discrete GPUs inside of PCs will hit 26%.
Looking at the year-to-year total GPU shipments, these numbers aren't good: they're down 25.1% for all types of platforms and GPUs, while desktop graphics cards dropped 15.4% and notebooks by 30% which is huge: the largest since the 2009 recession. Who lost the most? AMD.
AMD bled out GPU market share of 8.5% during Q3 2022, NVIDIA's GPU market share dropped 1.87% while Intel increased its GPU market share thanks to the Arc GPU launching, seeing Intel GPU market share jump by 10.3% in Q3 2022.
Moving onto overall GPU shipments, they decreased by 10.3% from the previous quarter... but get this: AMD GPU shipments dropped by a rather significant 47.6%, NVIDIA GPU shipments dropped by a smaller 19.7%, while Intel GPU shipments increased by 4.7%.
JPR notes that the third quarter normally sees the biggest growth over the second quarter, but Q3 2022 was down 10.3% from Q2 2022, which means we've dropped below the 10-year average of 5.3%.
- The GPU's overall attach rate (which includes integrated and discrete GPUs, desktop, notebook, and workstations) to PCs for the quarter was 115%, down -6.0% from last quarter.
- The overall PC CPU market decreased by -5.7% quarter to quarter and decreased -by 18.6% from year to year.
- Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) decreased by -33.5% from the last quarter.
- This quarter saw 0.5% change in tablet shipments from last quarter.
Jon Peddie noted in the new report: "The third quarter is usually the high point of the year for the GPU and PC suppliers, and even though the suppliers had guided down in Q2, the results came much below their expectations".
"All the companies gave various and sometimes similar reasons for the downturn: the shutdown of crypto mining, headwinds from China's zero-tolerance rules and rolling shutdowns, sanctions by the US, user situation from the purchasing run-up during Covid, the Osborne effect on AMD while gamers wait for the new AIBs, inflation and the higher prices of AIBs, overhang inventory run-down, and a bad moon out tonight".
"Generally, the feeling is Q4 shipments will be down, but ASPs will be up, supply will be fine, and everyone will have a happy holiday".