UK scientific advice: social distancing will need to last 12 months

If you thought a couple of weeks being forced to stay inside over COVID-19 coronavirus, then what about 12 months? Yeah, an entire year of social distancing might be the next step worldwide.

According to freshly-released documents, the only real way of controlling the outbreak of coronavirus and preventing intensive care workers and hospitals to be completely overwhelmed, a new push of social distancing will need to happen. The consensus statement released by the UK-based Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling suggests social distancing restrictions will need to last for up to 12 months.

A panel of experts was put together by the Department of Health and Social Care, where they advised on the response by the UK to the coronavirus pandemic -- based on infectious disease modelling and epidemiology. It said: "It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity".

The advice continued: "These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures. There would be a two to three week delay between measures being put into place and their impact being felt in [intensive care units]".

The statement by the UK-based scientists also said: "It was agreed that it is unclear whether or not the addition of general social distancing measures to case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups would curtail the epidemic".

"It was agreed that the addition of both general social distancing and school closures to case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups would be likely to control the epidemic when kept in place for a long period. [It was] agreed that this strategy should be followed as soon as practical, at least in the first instance".