PC shipments now expected to drop by over 11% in 2026, causing 'massive disruption'

The International Data Corporation (IDC) has published a new report stating that the current "memory and supply chain" issues facing the consumer technology and PC markets are much worse than expected. Back in November 2025, the firm published a report that stated that global shipments would shrink by 2.4% in 2026, which it's now revising to 11.3% - a substantial downturn.

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"These reductions are driven by a convergence of memory shortages, rising component prices, and broader supply constraints, all of which are expected to limit production well into 2027, making recovery timing a challenging and shifting target," the latest IDC report reads. Also adding that the unforeseen escalation of conflict in the Middle East has introduced a new layer of challenges driven by the seemingly insatiable appetite for building AI data centers and infrastructure.

IDC's Ryan Reith says this revised forecast and updated outlook will result in "massive disruption," meaning it will be "nearly impossible" for some companies to survive the memory crisis affecting all corners of the consumer PC market.

"What has turned all of this from a million‑dollar question into a trillion‑dollar question is the complete uncertainty around when these pressures will subside," Ryan Reith adds. However, despite this uncertainty, higher prices will still increase the overall market value of the PC sector. And that's with forecasts indicating that entry-level and affordable PCs are becoming a thing of the past.

As for when this will all end, IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani says prices will begin to ease in 2028. However, even when that happens, prices won't go back down to what they used to be. Kind of like how the crypto-mining boom forever altered the prices for enthusiast-class PC gaming graphics cards.

"While we anticipate some easing of prices beginning in 2028, the market is unlikely to return to the pricing levels seen in 2025," said Jitesh Ubrani. "Instead, we expect a new normal defined by structurally higher ASPs and a corresponding softening in long-term demand."