PC shipments grew 9.6% in 2025, but the outlook for 2026 is not so bright

A new report from International Data Corporation (IDC) indicates that global PC shipments grew by an impressive 9.6% year over year in Q4 2025. With shipments estimated at 76.4 million units, the big winners were Lenovo, HP, Dell, and ASUS, all of which experienced double-digit growth compared to the same period in 2024. Lenovo led the quarter with 25.3% market share.

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The growth is attributed to several factors, including increased demand driven by the holiday season, Windows 10 officially reaching the end of life, and early 2025 tariff concerns, which led to more inventory hitting the market. Another factor that drove growth in Q4 2025 was the upcoming memory shortages that are expected to hit all aspects of the PC market as we head into 2026.

And so, even though 9.6% year over year is definitely good news, the overall outlook for 2026 isn't so bright. In fact, IDC predicts that the PC market will look very different in 12 months based on "how quickly the memory situation is evolving."

"Beyond the obvious pressure on prices of systems, already announced by certain manufacturers, we might also see PC memory specifications be lowered on average to preserve memory inventory on hand," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice-president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "The year ahead is shaping up to be extremely volatile."

The current DRAM situation, driven by unprecedented demand from the AI market, will apparently "reshape" the global PC market over the next two years. Smaller brands are expected to be affected the most, and enthusiasts who regularly update their PCs or are due for a refresh are expected to either delay purchases or look elsewhere.

Interestingly, even though the total number of PCs shipped in 2026 is expected to drop, higher prices for individual components, such as memory, will increase the "overall market value" of the PC market.