Analyst says NVIDIA Blackwell GPU production volume will hit 750K to 800K units by Q1 2025

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NVIDIA's ramp into Blackwell appears to be "quite strong" with issues with initial Blackwell silicon are "totally behind us" says analyst firm Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley analysts posted a note recently, upbeat on Blackwell's potential impact on NVIDIA's top line heading into the final months of 2025. The firm explains: "According to our checks of the GPU-testing supply chain, Blackwell chip output should be around 250,000-300,000 in [the fourth quarter], contributing $5 billion to $10 billion in revenue, which is still tracking [Morgan Stanley lead analyst] Joe Moore's bullish forecast".

The investment firm said that Blackwell chip volume could reach 750,000 to 800,000 units -- which is a huge 3x increase -- from Q4 2024. The firm also expects Hopper volume (including H200 and H20) to be around 1.5M units in Q4 2024, gradually ramping down to 1M units in Q1 2025. The firm added that B200 chip prices are around 60-70% higher than H200, Blackwell revenue should surpass Hopper by Q1 2025.

• Read more: NVIDIA to make $210 billion revenue from selling its Blackwell GB200 AI servers in 2025 alone

Morgan Stanley said: "According to our checks of the GPU testing supply chain, Blackwell chip output should be around 250-300K in Q4 2024, contributing $5-10 billion revenue for NVIDIA, which is still tracking Joe Moore's bullish forecast. Into Q1 2025, we understand that Blackwell chip volume may reach 750K - 800K units, up almost 3x from Q4 2024. Meanwhile, we expect Hopper volume (including H200 and H20) to be around 1500K units in Q4 2024, and gradually ramp down to 1000K units in Q1 2025. Given B200 chip price is around 60% - 70% higher than H200, Blackwell revenue should surpass Hopper in Q1 2025".