Hardspell have an early scoop on the performance of a supposed "8800GS" graphics card to show up in numbers soon; this card primarily aimed at the OEM market but will apparently be embraced by several board manufacturers to issue them out in retail form as well.
the 8800GS is more or less a cut down 8800GT; based on the same G92 core but with only 12 ROPs, 384MB memory and cutdown clockspeeds of 575MHz core, 1430MHz shader and 1700MHz memory, it should be a solid contender to the HD 3850.
However, it can actually be faster than that when some parts of a frame are limited by processes such as triangle setup, attribute fetch, etc. - all of which should be less than 5% slower than on the 8800GT, as the only difference between the two in these workloads is the 575MHz core clock. Performance in 3DMark06 looks to be highly competitive with that of the HD3850, although we'll reserve our judgement until we have more numbers from real games.