There's no doubt that the state of the coronavirus in the United States is concerning, but how concerned should we be about getting an infection?
According to former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner and physician, Scott Gottlieb, MD, the community spread of the virus is already out of control, and that by the end of the year, half of the population of the United States will have coronavirus. Gottlieb grave that grave warning on June 29th to CNBC, and said "By the time we get to the end of this year, probably close to half the population will have coronavirus, and that's if we just stay at our current rate."
Gottlieb also touched on the fact that case numbers aren't slowing down, but instead are accelerating fast. A good way to break this down is by what is called the doubling rate, which is how many days it takes for the number of cases, hospitalizations, or deaths to double. The United States' doubling rate is down to 40 days, which Gottlieb says will reduce even further. Another good perspective to look at the current state of the coronavirus is through what is called the reproduction number.
A reproduction number is what determines the chances of a disease to spread at a specific time. Bestlifeonline says, "According to JAMA Network, a reproduction number of one means one secondary infection is caused by the initial infections, whereas a reproduction number of two means two secondary infections are caused by the initial infection, and those infected continue on and affect an average of two people."
Gottlieb added, "For every infection that they're diagnosing, there are at least 10 or 15 infections behind it. So they have tens of thousands of infections down there [in the southern states] that are circulating in the communities."
Unfortunately, the reproduction rate for more than half of the states across the US is climbing faster than what we can control, which is why many of the states that were in the process of reopening have decided to roll back some of the processes.
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