In September 2011, IDC and Gartner predicted that Windows Phone would take second position, knocking Apple from their place by 2015. Windows Phone head of marketing Achim Berg called that prediction "conservative". iSuppli have chimed in, predicting that Windows Phone will have a 16.7-percent market share by 2015, while Apple's market share will decline from the current 18-percent to 16.6-percent by 2015.
Overtake generally means to catch up, look over, smile and wave as you go faster, get ahead of them and continue going... but, iSuppli predict by 2015 that Windows Phone will have a 16.7-percent share of the market, and iOS will have 16.6-percent, this is just .1-percentage different. 3 letters, starts with L, ends in L.
What I don't understand from these numbers, is that it doesn't account for the fact that there will be no new entries into the market. Before Apple introduced the iPhone, if you had told me that they'd be where they are today, five years ago, I would've thrown an orange at you and laughed. But now, they are the company to compare to, funnily enough. Right now, I just can't see Windows Phone taking that much market share, but I can see Google dominating the next few years if they continue the path they've taken.
Samsung and HTC are great partners, and by acquiring Motorola Mobility, Google have a much better chance of taking the market by storm than Apple.